Today’s subject is sports betting. But first there are some thoughts to be offered on the internal conflicts of life as exemplified by dueling platitudes and/or literary references.
Is it absence makes the heart grow fonder, or out of sight, out of mind?
Is it, as written by the poet Robert Browning, “A man’s reach should exceed his grasp, or what’s heaven for?”
Or is it more accurate to cite the line uttered by the Dirty Harry character in the movie “Magnum Force,” that being “A man’s got to know his limitations.”
What this has to do with wagering is, for a guy who spent three decades covering sports, I’m awful at sports betting.
I’m terrible. I know it. I should avoid it – know my limitations so to speak.
Instead, I’m looking for Heaven by trying to have my reach exceed my grasp,
Today, my initial thought was Ohio State would crush Michigan in a college football showdown. But I didn’t like the 7.5-point spread — the victory margin the Buckeyes would need to surpass for me to win my bet. I also checked the weather for Ann Arbor, Mich., which was forecast to be cold and snowy, and liked the line even less.
The decision was made to avoid the game altogether. In hindsight, for the reasons cited, I should have taken Michigan and the points. Alas, I didn’t. I’m terrible at betting, remember.
Instead, I withdrew some money from my Draft Kings account to boost my mood.
How do I have money in the account if I’m so bad at betting? Glad you asked.
I employ the small-ball strategy. I look for promotions, such as bet $25 on blackjack, or roulette, or some other table game, and get incentives such as $5 of free casino credits, or a free $5 sports bet.
When I get two free bets, I bookend a game, taking both sides thereby guaranteeing one win.
Table games such as roulette or blackjack or baccarat, if played correctly in terms of decisions you make, should come out with the player winning just under 50 percent. Then you make the profit with the free credits or bets.
Net $5 here or $10 there a few times a week and it adds up. That’s if you do not give it back with poor sports bets and while I keep betting on sports, I keep it really small – talking maybe $1 a bet, $5 max.
This was turning into a nice part-time job until Draft Kings just about did away with the promotions I like.
So, I’m taking out $140 today and leaving $101.40 in the account. Pay yourself first like the financial planners say.
As I write, Michigan is up by seven points late in the fourth quarter, so even if Ohio State somehow pulls out a win, it’s virtually impossible to cover the 7.5-point spread. And now Michigan has scored again. Game over.
Just to keep life interesting, I do have $1 on the Penn State-Michigan State game, a single-game parlay. I read on ESPN, that a flu outbreak is worsening among Michigan State’s players. This raised the spread from 3.5 points to 5.5, with Penn State favored.
Although I think Penn State’s team and coach are both severely overrated, I took Penn State giving 5.5 and parlayed that with a bet on the combined points under bet of 51.5 for the game.
My $1 wagered would pay $3.60 if I got it right. Likely I didn’t, although that game has yet to start.
I also would have liked to have gotten down on Alabama vs. Auburn, but I didn’t like having to give 19.5 points to take Alabama. I’ll just watch that one and save my buck.
Now, come on Nittany Lions.
Sam Ross Jr's site 