Angst is great among Steelers fans after their beloved Black and Gold gang took one on the chin Sunday, or to quote coach Mike Tomlin from his postgame address, “got kicked in the teeth.”
The 30-7 beatdown came at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, a game not as close as the final score would indicate. The 49ers are being touted by some as Super Bowl material. The more optimistic among the sporting gentry had thought the Steelers were poised for some measure of greatness themselves this season– before Sunday, that is.
Predictably, these rabid Steelers fans, famed for dramatic mood swings based on the latest performance of their team, are ready to throw in their Terrible Towels and stop this season a mere one game into the festivities.
They had seen their vaunted defense humbled. They had seen quarterback Kenny Pickett suffer the worst day in the state for a guy named Pickett since the famed charge at Gettysburg during the Civil War.
But hang in there, people. The Steelers still have an ace in the hole, that being their customarily soft schedule.
Take a trip to the sharpfootballanalysis.com site and you will see the Steelers had what was considered the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL entering the season.
The key to this schedule analysis is it is not based on the backward-looking metric of teams’ records in the previous season, but the more realistic Las Vegas oddsmakers predictions of win expectations for teams in 2023.
History indicates there is something to this.
For example, of the 10 teams thought by Vegas to have had the hardest schedules at the beginning of the 2022 season, only two made it to the playoffs.
By contrast, six of the seven teams having what were considered the easiest schedules made the playoffs.
This strength of schedule is significant because the NFL, unlike big-time college football, does not allow teams to schedule games with teams from Sisters Of The Poor or School For The Blind to pad the record and allow a veritable bye week while still getting in some play under game conditions.
Theoretically, the NFL scheduling system penalizes successful teams with tougher schedules. But the concept is flawed in that it is based on the previous year and there is a rotation system that sets up teams with games vs. a specific division from the opposing conference each year.
If you get lucky in drawing a down division, your road got that much easier. Also, sometimes you have an apparent tough team late on your schedule, but by the time you meet the team it has been decimated by injuries.
Regardless, schedule strength, while not completely scientific, seems to be a better indicator when we are looking ahead based on how the wise guys rank win prospects of NFL teams.
I see the Steelers winning three of four games against the AFC South opposition (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston) and even with the loss to San Francisco, taking three of four games with the NFC West (remaining games are with LA Rams, Arizona and Seattle).
Break even in six AFC North Division games, which the Steelers tend to do (including last year), and you’re up to nine wins. Grab one additional victory somewhere along the line and you’re at 10 wins and in playoff contention.
Despite the present despair, the Steelers very easily could be 2-2 after upcoming games with Cleveland, Las Vegas and Houston have been played.
If I’m wrong and they’re 0-4, give it up. If they’re 2-2, keep the faith.
Sam Ross Jr's site 