Today we write of cycles, both the sort easily observed and those of longer duration that aren’t readily noted, but are obvious if you care to look closely.
The transition from fall to winter is unfolding in these parts, part of the annual cyclical rotation most of us are aware of and accept as inevitable. I was discussing this the other day with granddaughter No. 3, calling to her attention the difference between official dates for the start of seasons and the practical approximate timing of things such as the arrival of cold and snow in November, or warmth and better weather in April.
But, there are longer term cycles that play out over varying time frames, regarding bigger issues. Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev was part of the Soviet government in the 1920s, doing research that was supposed to prove that capitalist societies must ultimately fail. By extension, communism would be eternal.
When Kondratiev instead identified long-term cycles in free-market economies lasting anywhere from 40 to 60 years that showed capitalism successively going from expansion, to stagnation, to recession, and back to expansion, he was identifying capitalism as being self-cleansing and therefore not doomed to failure.
These cycles were named Kondratiev Waves in his honor.
While Kondratiev was renowned outside Russian, his socialist bosses didn’t approve of his message. He was arrested and eventually executed.
Investors often use waves in their technical analysis of when to buy or sell. A favorite tool for them are Elliott Waves, the creation of R.N. Elliott. This work replies on so-called fractals, patterns of similar appearance, but of varying degree.
A large component of Elliott Wave analysis is the use of Fibonacci ratios. These are derived from Fibonacci sequences in which each succeeding number is the sum of the previous two. Example: 0-1-1-2-3-5-8.
Social scientists also have their cyclical analysis, identifying repetitive ebbs and flows of the public mood based on generations. Perhaps you have heard of the generational turning work of Strauss and Howe.
They identify recurring patterns of The High, The Awakening, The Unraveling and The Crisis, each of a duration approximating 20 years. The timing is based on the average life expectancy of humans and how we behave differently at varying stages of our lives. At any given time, one generation is dominant and sets the tone.
Proponents of this methodology believe we are currently in a crisis turning period, similar to that endured from the Great Depression of the late 1920s through the post-World War II period of the late 1940s.
These people cite wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the great financial crisis of 2008 and the unsteadiness since, general social tension around the world and our domestic tension in which basic concepts of good and evil are diametrically opposite depending on political affiliation.
Zerohedge posted a story yesterday that began by identifying a time of such strife, breakdown of political, religious and social institutions and a general sense of despair over rapid change, not necessarily for the better.
The story quoted from was written in 1974.
History does repeat, both good and bad. The story went on to highlight the work of another social scientist, Peter Turchin, whose 50-year cycles begin with people finding ways to agree and cooperate and devolve into them being unable to find consensus on almost anything.
Sound familiar?
The hope to be found in cyclical work is that better times eventually return. But, at a certain point, the matter becomes whether one will be around long enough to welcome them.
Sam Ross Jr's site 