There are few things tougher than consistently picking NFL winners against the point spread.
I know, you’ve seen countless ads from people professing to be able to do this and they are willing to share their picks with you – for a price. This is a variation of investment gurus, who sell their money-making advice so that you might rake in the profits with them.
A basic question screams to be asked of these people: Why not just bet on the picks, or make the investments, yourself and get rich?
A followup is, if you’ve cracked the code to success, why share it?
If someone answers this latter inquiry with some sort of altruistic line, turn on your BS detector and run away.
I tell you this because there will be heavy betting action on the four NFL divisional round playoff games this weekend and the only people virtually guaranteed to make money are the gambling sites or traditional bookies taking the bets.
Despite this, there will be massive numbers of people lining up to plunk down their money. It is yet another example of the triumph of hope over experience.
Back in the late 1970s I was working at the Tribune-Democrat when the paper began printing a Sunday edition. Our Steelers beat writer left soon thereafter and I was the guy who filled that role off-and-on for the next 12 years or so.
The editor wanted someone to pick all NFL games against the spread each Sunday, but said I could pass if I didn’t want to do it. Realizing even then that it was a fool’s errand, I said no, thanks.
As it turns out, this was one of those typical management questions, offering you an apparent choice, as long as you picked their preferred option. If you didn’t, well, tough luck, you’re going to have to do it regardless.
My recollection was I never finished under .500 for a season doing this. But that doesn’t necessarily mean you’d have made money following me. To beat the bookies, you have to win 53 percent of the time if it’s 11/10 (bet $11 to win $10) vigorish (juice) which is the bookie’s fee. At 6/5 juice the win rate must be higher to make money.
Critics came out of the woodwork when my picks began to run. They all did better than me, or so they said. One particular guy, who did some freelance sports radio work, was particularly insistent.
I told him everyone can pick winners after the games are played, but if he would submit his picks beforehand, I’d run them as an add-on at the end my weekly picks. I gave him the pseudonym “Mr. Microphone.”
Alas, Mr. Microphone was diligent for a few weeks in submitting his picks, didn’t do so well, and faded into the ether.
I tell you all this not to paint myself as some sort of gambling guru. I did a little sports betting through an online site after I retired. I made a small amount of money gambling only by taking advantage of their promotions and winning money on free plays with blackjack, roulette and the like. When the promotions waned as such sites stopped throwing away money to acquire and keep new players, I got out of the online gambling game.
Besides, it’s much easier filing taxes without the additional forms required to account for gambling income.
And so, I don’t bet, but I do like to pick the games, just to amuse myself.
It struck me when I first checked out the lines for the four NFL games this weekend that I liked the underdog in each.
With all the caveats enumerated above, I would pick:
Houston plus 9.5 points at Baltimore because Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has a habit of coming up small in big games (0-2 in past divisional rounds with 1 TD pass and 3 interceptions). Baltimore still wins, but not by enough to cover.
Green Bay plus 9.5 points at San Francisco because Packers QB Jordan Love has been amazing making plays under duress and the Packers have won outright their past four games as underdogs. No win this time, but like the above game, Packers keep it close.
Tampa Bay plus 6 points at Detroit because the Lions won their first playoff game in 32 years last week and I think they might have quite the emotional hangover from that. I would not be shocked if Tampa Bay won the game outright, but I like the Bucs a lot getting six points.
Kansas City plus 2.5 points at Buffalo because a) The Bills defense, especially the secondary, is riddled with injuries. b) Bills QB Josh Allen is due for another turnover outburst. c) The NFL’s ongoing love affair with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Swifts means Buffalo starts the game behind. Kansas City wins outright.
Sam Ross Jr's site 