It’s accountability time. The four weekend NFL playoff picks I proffered here last week ended up at breakeven – two correct and two incorrect.
The daily breakdown was 1-1 Saturday and 1-1 Sunday.
It all began with Houston, a 9.5-point underdog I’d picked to play close vs. Baltimore, failing to do so. I got it half right. The Texans were locked in a 10-all tie at the half, and easily could have been ahead if their placekicker hadn’t misfired on an attempt late in the half.
But, give the Ravens credit, they buried the Texans in the second half on the way to a 34-10 victory.
In the second game Saturday, I liked Green Bay getting 9.5 points vs. San Francisco and save for a late collapse, the Packers could have won outright. As it was, Green Bay could not overcome a fourth-quarter field-goal miss (sound familiar) and interception, allowing the 49ers to carry the fourth quarter by a 10-0 margin and win the game, 24-21.
Still, it was an easy cover for those of us liking the Packers and the points.
Sunday was a repeat of sorts. I’d liked Tampa Bay getting 6 points vs. Detroit and thought the Bucs had a chance to win outright, although I did not pick that.
My calculus did not predict Baker Mayfield tossing two interceptions and yet another field-goal miss by an underdog I’d picked to cover.
Add it all together and you could understand how the Bucs just failed to cover, losing 31-23, a final that included a basically inexplicable unsuccessful two-point conversion try on the final Tampa Bay touchdown.
It was ironic that the underdog I felt strongest about, even predicting an outright win, came through. That would be the Kansas City Swifts. If there is a God in football heaven, Baltimore will beat the Swifts next week in the AFC championship game and we’ll be spared more cloying coverage of the tight end’s gal pal after the game.
Regardless, my main reason for picking KC — an injury-riddled Buffalo defense — was spot on as the Chiefs scored on almost every possession when it counted.
I was incorrect that Bills QB Josh Allen would would be bit by the turnover bug, not that he didn’t try with a near interception or two and a fumble of his that the Bills were able to recover.
Last, I suspected KC would get the benefit of close calls, but that ended up being about a wash.
In the end, the Chiefs backed my faith in them by winning outright, 27-24, but that only helped me to finish the weekend at a break-even 2-2. As I explained in the picks blog post, this would lose you money as a gambler due to the bookie’s juice.
The early betting lines on the two conference championship games next Sunday are Detroit plus-7 points at San Francisco and Kansas City plus-3.5 at Baltimore.
My preliminary take is to like both favorites. But I’ll be pondering that throughout the week.
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