A little more than a month ago, I noted that the Pirates were contenders for a wild-card spot in the postseason, with caveats that included this was due largely to a very weak National League beyond the top three teams.
I also said that while the Pirates had a chance, I didn’t expect them to make it because there were so many competitors for the three wild-card spots. The point was made that with so much competition, some teams were almost guaranteed to win on any given night and even if the Pirates ran hot for a time, they would have trouble gaining on all the other teams vying for the spots.
When I wrote that July 6 post, the Pirates were 42-46, four games out of the third and final wild-card spot.
The Pirates got hot, winning 10 of their next 14 games, including a season-high six-game win streak. Along the way, the Pirates inexplicably took two of three from the Philadelphia Phillies and then two of three from fellow wild-card contender, the St. Louis Cardinals.
On July 23, the Pirates and San Diego Padres each were just one-half game out of the third and final wild-card spot.
It all turned sour, though, when the Pirates dropped two of three against the Arizona Diamondbacks, another wild-card contender, beginning July 26.
As play began today, Saturday Aug. 10, 2024, the Pirates’ wild-card hopes were flagging. They have lost five straight games, seven of their past eight, and sit 4.5 games out of the last wild-card berth, with four teams between the Pirates and those third-seeded New York Mets.
The Pirates were 55-52 after a July 30 win. They now sit at 56-59. With 47 games remaining they are approaching the ¾ pole of the season. If this were a horse race, you’d be about to tear up your ticket if you’d bet on the Pirates.
The irony is that if somehow the Pirates did make the wild-card round of the postseason, I’d like their chances in the best-of-3 series format they would face.
Unlike the regular season, when pitching depth is the key and the fourth or fifth starters, as well as bullpen and bench strength often make the difference, in a short series, having two dominant starting pitchers can be enough. The Pirates have that in Mitch Keller and rookie Paul Skenes, even though each had a bit of a rough outing in their most recent starts.
But those two are capable of shutting down any lineup on any given day, which would have given the Pirates hope in that abbreviated best-of-3 format for the wild-card round.
If the Pirates could get there, they could win a series. But the odds are, they won’t get the chance.
Sam Ross Jr's site 