The Penn State and Pitt football teams are unbeaten. The Steelers lead their division.
The cups runneth over for area football fans. But, we feel compelled to wonder, should we describe the condition by borrowing from Shakespeare and his play “Much Ado About Nothing” or is a Steve Allen song reference more accurate as in “This Could Be The Start Of Something Big.”
The next week or so should bring us election clarity. We may need to wait a bit longer for the final word on the football fortunes of the aforementioned teams.
Let us start with the Steelers. At season’s beginning, a metric that considers the past season’s results with current season expectations as established by bettors, had the Steelers with one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. I begged to differ then, and still do to an extent.
What is clear is the Steelers better enjoy their bye this coming weekend, because their soft schedule life is about to get a lot tougher in the second half of the season.
The combined record of the eight victims of the 6-2 Steelers to date is 27-35. The combined record of the remaining foes is 36-32. And that apparent strength is crimped by two games remaining each with Cleveland (2-6) and Cincinnati (3-5).
Unbeaten Kansas City (7-0) is a remaining challenge, as will be two games with Baltimore (5-3) and one each with Washington (6-2) and Philadelphia (5-2).
The good news for the Steelers is they could lose all five remaining games vs. winning teams still on their schedule, then just take care of business against Cleveland Cincinnati, and finish with 10 wins and a likely playoff spot.
That was my feeling after Monday night and it was reinforced when I read a projection posted today on ESPN.com that gives the Steelers an 87 percent chance to make the playoffs, but just 39 percent to win the AFC North Division that they currently lead.
This pretty much mirrors my take on the Steelers – good enough in the regular season, but not the stuff of Super Bowl championships.
Next, let us look at Penn State, 7-0 and ranked No. 3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll. That the Nittany Lions are ranked behind once-beaten Georgia speaks volumes about their soft schedule.
Sure, Penn State beat Kent State easily, 56-0. But Kent State is 0-8, generally considered one of the worst, if not the worst, team in Division I football. The week before losing to Penn State, Kent lost by a 71-0 score at Tennessee, and it could have been worse. Tennessee led 37-0 after one quarter and 65-0 at the half!
But it goes beyond Kent. West Virginia, the opening opponent, is 4-4 and bad enough that it fired its defensive coordinator today, in-season! Penn State struggled with 4-4 Mid-American team Bowling Green and needed a huge comeback to knock off 4-4 USC, a performance one Penn State fan-boy site thought might indicate a “turning point” for coach James Franklin, perhaps indicating he’s ready to start winning big games.
Franklin apologized for being child-like last week in walking away from reporters’ questions twice regarding two players since pruned from the roster who are facing felony rape charges for a July incident the past summer.
Franklin is unapologetic for his record of 3-17 vs. Top 10 opposition, primarily Michigan and Ohio State.
Even Penn State’s best win this season, 21-7 over Illinois, currently No. 24, is weak sauce. The Illini were even with Penn State at the half, 7-7. By way of contrast, the Illini are coming off absorbing a 38-9 pounding at the hands of No. 1 Oregon last week that was 35-3 at the half.
The good news for Franklin and Penn State is that in a rapidly expanding Big Ten, the schedule gods have removed Michigan from the schedule and did not sub in Oregon.
If Penn State can beat No. 4 Ohio State Saturday, or even if the Lions lose for the eighth straight time to the Buckeyes, they can cruise into the 12-team national championship playoffs by beating a closing schedule of Washington (4-4), Purdue (1-6), Minnesota (5-3) and Maryland (4-4).
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is reported to be a game-time decision as to whether his left knee injury is sufficiently improved to allow him to play vs. Ohio State.
This 6-1 Ohio State team is a lot like Penn State in that it is inconsistent and finds itself frequently playing down to the level of the competition, witness last week’s near upset loss to Nebraska, a team that had been waxed by a 56-7 score in its previous game vs. Indiana.
This Penn State-Ohio State game has a lot of uncertainty around it. But even yet another Franklin loss to a quality opponent shouldn’t keep Penn State out of the playoffs.
Lastly, there is surprising Pitt, 7-0 for the first time since 1982 and ranked No. 18 nationally this week.
The Panthers have been escape artists in several wins and have seen their offensive yardage drop almost 200 yards a game since leaving the soft preseason schedule – yes, Kent State was on it – to playing in the ACC, in an admittedly down year.
Pitt plays at No. 20 SMU (7-1) Saturday and Panthers quarterback Eli Holstein, may or may not be dealing with an injury.
Clemson ( No. 11) is the only remaining ranked team on the Pitt schedule beyond SMU.
In these geographically challenged times in college sports, SMU now is an ACC team, and is 4-0 in conference play. Pitt is 3-0. Clemson leads at 5-0 and No. 5 Miami, which does not appear on Pitt’s schedule, is 4-0.
By the end of the day on Nov. 16, when Pitt will have played SMU and Clemson, we should have a much clearer view of the Panthers’ place in the national picture.
My advice: Don’t pencil them into your 12-team national championship playoff bracket.
Sam Ross Jr's site 