This year’s college football playoffs, fast becoming an exercise seemingly set on proving bigger is not better, stumbles into its Final Four Thursday and Friday nights.
The starting field of 12 teams has been whittled down to the point that Penn State plays Notre Dame Thursday night in the Orange Bowl semifinal game and Texas meets Ohio State Friday night in the Cotton Bowl semifinal.
How we got here has been a sad stew of questionable pairings, equally questionable officiating and lots of talk about Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) revenues for the players.
Some of these guys will be taking a pay cut when they officially turn pro. If you ask me, someone making millions of bucks because they play college football already is a pro.
Can we be far removed from NIL salary caps in college?
Through it all, Penn State coach James Franklin has come across as the epitome of the apocryphal guy who gets a free lunch and complains it wasn’t a free dinner.
To recap, Penn State lost its two biggest games of the season, a regular season contest with traditional tormentor Ohio State, and a setback to Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
As a reward, Penn State was gifted a home first-round playoff game with overmatched SMU. What followed the predictable win was a neutral field Fiesta Bowl matchup with similarly overmatched Boise State.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s two conquerors this season, Ohio State and Oregon, were forced to play each other in the other half of the bracket in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal round. Ohio State won handily, 41-21, after leading 34-0 in the first half.
Yet, Franklin has the cajones to show up for the Orange Bowl and gripe that Notre Dame isn’t in a conference like Penn State, presumably suggesting Notre Dame had an easier road to this point.
I find this thinking hypocritical on several counts. First, Penn State did not play Oregon in the regular season, despite being in the same conference, and had Michigan, which dominates Penn State about as soundly as Ohio State does, off the schedule, too.
One can argue about Indiana’s relative strength, but the Hoosiers were yet another team that had a strong Big Ten season but wasn’t on Franklin’s dance card.
And it would be hard to find a reliable college football analyst who didn’t think Penn State’s playoff path has been soft, including having extra time to prepare for this game compared with Notre Dame, due to the Sugar Bowl being delayed a day after the act of terrorism in New Orleans.
Notre Dame, it could be argued, didn’t face the most strenuous path, either. A first-round home win over Indiana and a battle vs. an uneven Georgia team with a quarterback making his first college start, isn’t the greatest resume.
The winner of the Texas-Ohio State game looks to be Ohio State, unless the Buckeyes have yet another inexplicably bad performance, something for which they have become noted.
Penn State has a lot going for it against Notre Dame. Will that outweigh the Franklin factor? An unlikely duo of USA Today and The Wall Street Journal in recent days ran lengthy stories about Franklin, who has earned the mocking nickname of Big Game James by coaching his teams to a 1-14 record vs. opposition ranked in the Top 5, a 1-10 record vs. Ohio State, and 3-7 vs. Michigan. You get the picture.
The headline on the Wall Street Journal story: “The Football Coach Who Wins Every Game – Except the Ones That Matter.”
The USA Today story mentioned what some see as similarities between Michigan’s national champions last year – including two dominant running backs, a pro level tight end, strong defense, veteran quarterback – and Penn State this year.
Differences noted in the story are Penn State lost two games and Michigan lost none. The story concludes former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh just might have taken Penn State to the national title this season. Can Franklin? Bookmakers give Franklin and Penn State the longest odds against such victory among the remaining four teams.
I’m thinking Franklin pulls a rabbit out of his hat and beats a Notre Dame team that did, after all, lose at home to Northern Illinois this year.
Texas is here after two wins in games it dominated early, but had trouble closing. Only a non-call on an obvious targeting infraction rescued Texas against Arizona State.
If Ohio State and its $20 million NIL roster plays up to form, Texas sees its playoff run end here. A wild card in the game is weather reports, which seemingly change by the hour, but could include uncharacteristic cold and even some snow.
Either way, barring catastrophic injury or other such vagaries, I’m thinking the Texas-Ohio State winner moves on to win the national championship.
Sam Ross Jr's site 