The biggest concern on my plate ahead of tonight’s USA-Canada championship game in the 4 Nations Face-Off is whether or not I’ll be able to watch the game.
I’m sitting her at the mercy of DISH, and the inability of its satellite signals to penetrate through much worse than sunny skies. I couldn’t watch the Finland-Sweden game Saturday due to my signal evaporating, touching off a phone conversation stretching more than hour with uncooperative DISH people who don’t understand that their signal guarantee specifically mentions receiving account credit for weather outages.
My backup for DISH crapping out again tonight would be trying to watch the game online. That, too, is less than a certainty because my Breezeline internet provider already has greeted me with outages earlier today.
I know, I know, I’m supposed to be on pins and needles worried whether the U.S. can win it all. I’d settle for being able to watch the game.
Spoiler alert, I expect Canada to win.
I’m as patriotic as the next guy, maybe even a little moreso. I’m not saying the U.S. can’t win, or even won’t win. I just understand that if the guys in red, white and blue triumph, it would be a momumental surprise.
As legendary sportswriter Damon Runyon is said to have quipped, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”
First off, it’s hard to consistently beat an opposing team when the talent levels are close. The U.S. already has beaten Canada 3-1 in the round-robin portion of this tournament. As long as the games are played by humans, emotions intrude and it’s natural for the winner to have a touch less urgency the next time, while the losers are driven to atone.
It seems to me the U.S. has more depth, but Canada has more top-end offensive talent.
This is altered by the U.S. entering this game tonight in Boston toting a lot of injury baggage.
Begin with three top-echelon forwards – Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk and Brady Tkachuk – who are less than 100 percent. Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk sat out the last game vs. Sweden with injuries, and Brady left it early after wiping out into the goal upright. Even if all play tonight as expected, will they be anywhere near 100 percent?
Some think Matthews has been hurt all tournament. His defense has been dogged, but this gifted goal scorer has yet to put one in the net.
Take Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby away from Canada and you might notice a dropoff.
The injury news continues for the U.S., who will be without defenseman Charlie McAvoy. Supposedly McAvoy got hurt in the opener vs. Finland, but still played vs. Canada. The Canadians will recall this because McAvoy delivered huge hits on Crosby and McDavid (twice) that had an effect on the outcome.
It was Crosby, perhaps a bit tentative after his run-in with McAvoy, who coughed up the puck for the game-winning U.S. goal. McDavid scored early, but was not a huge factor after the hits he absorbed.
Not seeing McAvoy in uniform will bring joy to Canada’s team.
The U.S. also has arguably its best defenseman, Quinn Hughes, missing the entire tournament due to injury.
Meanwhile, the Canadians were missing star defenseman Cale Makar for the first meeting with the U.S. He’s back and is a weapon.
That the game is being played in Boston, a supposed home-ice advantage, is mostly a non-factor in my view. How much did playing in Montreal and having the insecure Canadian fans boo our national anthem before the game help Canada? The hosts did lose, right, after going on top 1-0, which further hyped the crowd.
Vocal home crowds can raise the emotions of the visitors, too, spurring them to great heights if only to shove it back in the faces of the spit droolers.
This game is being pitched as much more than a hockey contest due to Canada’s hurt feelings over President Trump calling them out regarding unfair trade practices, noting how they depend on us for national defense and Trump kidding girl-boy prime minister Justin Trudeau that he’s just the soon-to-be-ousted governor of our soon-to-be-51st state.
Canadians are overly invested in their hockey identity and should they somehow blow this game, it will be a national day of mourning.
If the U.S. somehow can prevail, it will 1980 Miracle on Ice, the sequel.
I just hope I get to watch it all unfold.
Sam Ross Jr's site 