Some of the appeal has been stripped from the AFC title game today due to the fractured right ankle of Denver quarterback Bo Nix, but the NFC title matchup of Seattle and Los Angeles remains intriguing. I’ll watch both because, as perhaps you have noticed, it’s snowing outside.
Steelers fans might want to avert their gaze from the New England-Denver game. Barring a major surprise, the Patriots are headed back to the Super Bowl, while the Steelers’ run of years without a playoff win is pushing a decade. There’s a serious case of envy developing.
They’ve got to be crying in Buffalo, too. Had the Bills not blown the game at Denver, it would be them facing the Patriots and, at last report, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is relatively healthy.
When news broke of the Nix injury after the Bronco’s OT elimination of the Bills, the kneejerk reaction was to write off Denver’s chances. Nothing really has changed in the interim.
The betting line for New England at Denver has been hopping around. I’ve seen the Patriots favored by as many as 5.5 points and by as few as 3.5.
I think both lines are too modest, but if you can find 3.5 points, book it for New England.
That vaunted Denver defense can’t win by itself and my presumption is someone will have worked with Patriots quarterback Drake Maye – he of six fumbles in two playoff games – teaching him you’re supposed to hang onto the football.
On the other side, with all due respect to replacement Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham, he’s no Bo Nix, despite the fact both played college ball at Auburn.
There is a reason Stidham has exactly four starts in seven seasons of pro football and this will be his first start of the current season.
Denver had a week to work with him and build a reduced gameplan around him. If that’s enough to win the game, color me shocked.
Take New England and give the – hopefully as few as 3.5 – points.
Moving on to the Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks, Seattle has been a favorite all week in a range from 1.5 points to 2.5.
Let’s presume it’s a 2.5-point favorite status. If I were betting, I’d take the Rams based almost entirely on the quarterback differential.
The Rams have a proven Super Bowl winner in Matthew Stafford. Seattle has Sam Darnold, playing for his fifth team in eight seasons.
Notably, Darnold quarterbacked Minnesota to 14 regular-season wins in 2024, but lost in the playoffs and didn’t perform well late in the regular season. The Vikings were only too happy to see him leave as a free agent.
Darnold has presided over yet another 14-win regular season, this time for Seattle. And he’s won a playoff game as Seattle trounced overmatched San Francisco last week.
This week will be much more competitive, as have been both the teams’ regular-season games.
That means Darnold will have to come through at crunch time. Maybe he will or maybe he won’t.
But I’d bank on Stafford outplaying him and thus would take the Rams and the points.
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