Political partisans are like Charlie Brown when it comes to polling, only too willing to believe in a favorable future outcome and often having their faith proved to be misplaced.
Lucy always pulls away the football just before Charlie can kick it. Pollsters often provide similar false hope, which gives way to crushing reality on election day or, in the case of California and other bastions, weeks or months later when the vote counts finally are completed.
If you take the time to check, too many political pollsters are about as accurate as weather forecasters, which is to say, not very accurate at all.
The quintessential example was the infamous 1948 headline in the Chicago Daily Tribune “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
An aside is pertinent here. Yes, that happened before most of us, including me, were born. And that is a familiar refrain of our age when one is citing history, to have people note that it happened before they were born. Well, I have read the Bible, chronicling events that happened before I was born. Similarly, I am aware of significant history of all kinds that happened before I was born. That does not make such history irrelevant, or give the ignorant ones a pass for not knowing it.
Now, back to Dewey-Truman.
The paper, embroiled at the time in labor strife involving its printers, went to press with early editions before final vote tallies were done. The headline and story were based on widespread polling that Dewey would win in a landslide, and the rubber stamping of that by the paper’s lead political writer.
Indications on election day that the race was tighter than anticipated were ignored, for reasons of production expediency.
Embarrassment followed.
Surely, polling science has improved since then. Or has it?
Shrillary Clinton would have achieved her most-desired “Madame President” title had 2016 polling been accurate that had her ahead of Donald Trump by 3, 4, 5 percentage points. This just in, Shrillary lost, and never has recovered psychologically.
Fast-forward to 2024 and many pollsters had Cackling Kamala beating Trump for the presidency, including a very suspect Iowa poll just before the election that showed a statistically unlikely surge into the lead by the Cackling One.
It wasn’t “Dewey Defeats Truman,” but it was on par with that gaffe.
Of late, polls in the Peoples Republic of California have produced shockingly encouraging results for Republicans. Steve Hilton, a Republican, leads the latest polling for governor and another Republican is in fourth place. The top two vote-getters in this primary advance to the general election.
In Los Angeles, sitting mayor Karen “Rhymes With Ass” Bass leads in the chance to preside again, perhaps, over another burning of her city. Think of Nero and Rome.
But neophyte politician Spencer Pratt, a Republican, is a strong second and some national pundits are predicting he will win it all.
Bass and her fellow Democrats bombed in a televised debate, leading to Bass and others on the left pulling out of a planned second debate.
There is no way an incompetent such as Bass should even be a contender. But this is California, where men can be women, no illegal immigrant is a criminal, fraud is the sanctioned business of government and crime and homelessness are allowed to run rampant.
Along that line, I will celebrate Hilton’s success only after he is sworn in as governor.
California does have a track record of, shall we say, massaging the vote.
The polls provide encouragement and a brief respite from the typical head-scratching behavior coming from California and similarly deep blue states.
Before you take them too seriously, recall Dewey and Truman.
Sam Ross Jr's site 